Babak is a Ph.D. student and Research Assistant in the Department of Geoscience under the supervision of Dr. Zach Perzan. His current research focuses on hydrology and climate modeling, with particular emphasis on groundwater resources in California’s Central Valley.
SESSION
10:30 AM – 11:00 AM
Wed, May 20, 2026
Planet Hollywood Las Vegas Resort & Casino, Celebrity Foyer
Projecting Future Hydroclimatic Conditions in California’s Central Valley
California’s Central Valley (CV) is one of the most important and highly productive agricultural regions in the world, yet it faces critical environmental challenges, including groundwater depletion driven by extensive agricultural pumping and the growing influence of climate change. Climate change is expected to intensify the occurrence of hydroclimatic extremes, such as prolonged droughts, extreme heat events, and flooding. At the same time, groundwater overextraction has contributed to land subsidence across parts of the region. These changes have the potential to fundamentally alter the regional hydrologic cycle and exacerbate existing water management challenges. Therefore, understanding how future hydroclimate conditions may evolve is essential for long-term, sustainable water resource planning. This study focuses on projecting key hydroclimatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and runoff, within the CV by the end of the 21st century. To evaluate future hydrological conditions, this research uses the high-resolution (3 km) downscaled and bias-corrected LOCA-2 dataset, from the latest generation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) scenarios. In particular, we aim to quantify how variations in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the timing and volume of seasonal runoff, as well how changes in temperature will intensify PET. The results of this work establish the climate-driven foundation required to assess future hydrologic risks in the CV. The projected changes in hydroclimatic conditions will provide insight into potential shifts in water availability during the irrigation season and opportunities for groundwater recharge. Ultimately, the results of this study will help inform water managers and policymakers seeking to develop adaptive strategies for water conservation, storage, and groundwater sustainability under future climate scenarios.